macaubeyond

To okacheung,

你说的没错，我是个可能是投机主义者，但绝非公权体系下的受益者。
我和你一样，我也厌恶公权体系下的官僚资本主义，但这就是现实，
而这些现实不会因为你我的厌恶发生改变，至少在未来10年。

想改变权力分配体系的游戏规则，不是民意，更不是所谓理想主义者的呐喊，
而是更大的权力。中国几千年历史，就是一部权力斗争史。历史上中国很多皇帝想了无数办法来制衡各方权力，你以为皇帝各个声色犬马？有些真是活活累死的。毛主席晚年除了通读24史，基本不过问政事，因为新中国建立后对权力的驾驭者有更高的挑战。

因为香港太小，离历史上的政治中心（洛阳，西安，南京，北京）太远，所以香港人普遍认为所谓权力就是民权民意，这是属于西式的文化。西方文化的本源是基督教，讲究天赋人权，人人平等。而中国的文化本源是儒家思想，本质是天地君亲师，讲究三纲五常，有非常严格的等级观念，这种等级观念就是了权力的来源。说多几句，北京天安门上最近落成了孔子像，从来天安门只有毛主席像，孔子像入住说明高层是很认可传统儒家思想。所以在未来，集成的权力架构不会改变，权力寻租也许会被遏制，但难以根除。

介绍完内地，再来说说香港。香港经济的核心是国际贸易，国际金融再加上一些旅游和商业。我知道如果我在这里唱衰香港是件愚蠢的事情，会引来一片骂声。但客观情况是，香港很多优势正在丧失。先说国际贸易的核心是港口，香港港曾经是很威风，在2004年以前一度是全球最繁忙的港口。但是上海港已是全球第一大港，香港港口排第三，而且中央政府已经明确了上海的国际航运港的定位。再说周边，近在咫尺的深圳港和广州港的合力也超过香港港。
说完贸易，再说金融。上海股市市值已经超过港股了，这并不重要，重要的是上海陆续要上国际板，红筹回归，国资委国企资产证券化。这一系列举动标志着上海的金融中心被明确，如果你玩股票，你应该知道玩的是趋势，而不是价值。这就是金融中心的趋势。当然目前香港金融还可能有一个新渠道，那就是人民币的有条件开放和贸易结算，上海和香港都在争夺中央政策。

你和我谈深圳，广州。那我也说几句。深圳曾经想做南方金融中心，现在基本泡汤。深圳的定位是科技型城市，通讯设备电子制造等等，不要以为深圳只有骨女，桑拿和向西村。深圳华为，中兴，腾讯，比亚迪，大族激光等。华为把摩托罗拉，北电等欧美传统企业都搞死了，现在只有老牌爱立信和华为有一拼。在华为工作了10年的研发和销售人员，基本都年入百万了。再说广州，广州定位是商业和物流中心，基础是目前的花都航空港和未来的京广高铁。广东是国内制造业大省，佛山和东莞大部分国内贸易物流通道都是集中在广州。未来10年，中国贸易的大趋势是国内贸易而非国际贸易，因为扩大内需是目前的中央政策，政府对三来一补的低附加值外贸是不满意的。广州天河区和深圳福田区达到香港人均gdp的一半，但这两个区gdp年增长都超过香港10%，用计算器算一下就知道几年可以达到了。

没错，现在香港依然是国际金融中心，贸易中心。对我这样的投机者更看重趋势，而非当前价值。另外，香港普选也是对香港经济的新考验，若中央政府不满意普选后的特区政府，政策的扶持也会有新的变数。

我并非不看好香港，未来在中国所有城市中，香港最大的亮点和自豪之处将是完善的欧美法系和自由民主观念。

651bun

引用:

原帖由 macaubeyond 於 2011-2-9 02:23 AM 發表
To okacheung,

你说的没错，我是个可能是投机主义者，但绝非公权体系下的受益者。
我和你一样，我也厌恶公权体系下的官僚资本主È ...

I don't have a problem of you pointing out the problems in H.K and I really don't think you are bad-mouthing it. But somehow you forget the root of the problem. Like you said, the advantages H.K have are its legal system and overall quality of its people. Unfortunately, they are being chipped away because of our great motherland. As long as the systems in China remain pretty much the same(forseeable future), H.K will always be a little safe haven for the foregin investors, witnessed by their actions in setting up shops in H.K. I only worry the ticking time-bomb will explode sonner rather than later.......:smile_42:

okacheung

广州天河区和深圳福田区??? These are districts to compare with the whole of HK? Let's be all fair and square, if it is comparing the GDP per capita in Central, HK, I think the people in those district will still have to look further for another 50 years. By the way, you think this growth in the PRC is forever?

Also, no doubt Shanghai is taking the lead in PRC financial center, but one have to recognise that Shanghai is the center of the North-east only. A strong half of the economic activities are in the South, as you mentioned Guangdong province and its nearby provinces are doing well in technology and domestic tradings. Note, and I have to say again, HK has many investments in these regions and will benefit from the growth. May be you should look at a better economic indicator to find out more about how exactly does HK fare against those towns such as the use of GNP per capita.You can imagine HK is the brains and management behind a lot of these successes and likewise, many enterprises in the South wanting a more international outlook  naturally choose to list in HK. HK people will surely be alerted to work hard so as to keep up with you fast riches.  

However, I have to give you credits for having good knowledge of economics, politics and history. But having said that that some of your views are too PRC oriented and simply had too much pride. Although I don't want the growth to disappear but be hold when the growth reaches its plateau, the storm will come and I think you have never experienced a financial crisis before. HK people have been through many and have well adapted so they are preserving their wealth quite well by now.

okacheung

Btw, time for me to go to work now. I work for an investment bank and I work hard. I know my meager salary is uncomparable for you fast riches but in a few years time I am on my way to at least 2-3m (excluding bonus of 12-48 months). No to mention I learn about transactions, corporations and dealing with people like you (or I may not, coz I only talk to big shot bosses for their IPO and M&A transactions). Unlike middleshotman I work freaking hard, but just like many HK people, I am vigilant about "China rising", and hate to lose out and will capitalise whenever I can to be even stronger than you fast riches.

Bunryuu

引用:

原帖由 middleshotman 於 2011-2-8 10:01 AM 發表
"講真D 正常女仔EX 連佢自己都數唔出幾多個~ 仲要件件環保中出添啦"....最經典呢句。。。師兄好野！

以前都仲好d，女女會放長線釣大魚，現在d九十後，真系樣樣都要快。。。特別我哋呢種早出來玩的，真系覺得 ...

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要養起佢~ 簡直易過借火~ 問題佢有冇本事可以留得住個男人既心~


担白講~ 你想FOC 根本冇乜可能~

但係都唔好離譜到一開波就叫人送手機, 叫人買貴野, 嚇都嚇走哂啦~


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跌錢報告年中都唔知試過多次...

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相好既感覺就係... 就算你唔會娶佢都好~ 你對佢都有少少感情...

而果D o靚妹呢~ 真係唔願做~ 戲都唔想交...

玩完仲X無引...


常平D倉~ D囡囡搵幾多錢, 我心中有數啦~

加上D客源都係果班人~ 間唔中會有D生客, 但係唔多LO~


有次星期5 上去~ 4點鐘落倉~ G頭話有D出左快仔未返~ 我話時間尚早~ 我坐陣等下, 睇下有冇新囡返先~

一路到7點40分~ 入黎睇既就有~ 真係帶女出去... 一件都冇...

我就知道佢地D生意其實唔係真係咁好~ 星期5都係咁~ 平日就更加唔駛講~


而我呢D VIP... 相熟G頭都唔敢整件放飛機既比我...

我講明~ 要食快仔深圳大把~ 我駛鬼山長水遠過黎呢邊~!?


而果邊係靠台灣客,香港客, 有時夾D韓國客同日本客~

但係香港客地里位置最方便~ 外地客, 去得幾多次丫~


初四果晚先搞笑~ 一入場~ 擺明就係幾個倉D囡囡擺埋哂係同一個倉比人揀~

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但係全世界都知... 新年都仲係度果D~ 即係搵唔到食果班啦~

不過在場囡囡外貌絕對冇問題~ 好多靚女~

敝在有兩件我都識既... 一個我試過~ 一個我個FD試過~ 搵唔到食總會有原因...

連埋果日呢件~ 更加証明我既推論正確~


而之前件相好就係提供到大量行內資訊比我知... 而果邊D 做得耐既囡囡都識KEEP客~

果D 搵唔到食既~ 即係比人一試完就即走... 冇下次果種~

所以囡囡成日玩手機係正常的~


不過我都唔弱~ 我都一樣會玩手機~


之前見過有師兄~ 入倉同幾件相好傾計... 好似選妃咁~


我仲激~ QQ 度叫個相好比埋人名我, 問佢邊個好玩D~


與其聽D 廣告REPORT 不如直接問D囡囡好過~

initialv

呢樹唔係講玩講女人架meh?

我了解大陸同胞有錢，但人地錢點用是人家的事，人地ok就ok la.

另，財富真的不是一定要“曬”嘅。。。靠改革開放發達的港人多到數唔曬。香港為中國做出的貢獻遠比依傢大陸的新一代知道的多不只多少倍，只是現在在大陸已經沒有人提，香港人也不期望有什麽回報。樓主你都可能直接/間接受惠。

我返大陸旅遊都不記得給人搵多少次笨，唔通打人又盛甘“巴屎閉”？

睇睇下講到華為中興，離曬題，睇到冇曬引。唔睇啦.

simonkok

引用:

原帖由 Bunryuu 於 2011-2-9 09:34 AM 發表



識做人既囡囡呢~ 我都見識過~ 果然好快就已經上岸...

事實佢既態度真係令人愛不惜手~ 果然呢D 真係沉都抵~


要養起佢~ 簡直易過借火~ 問題佢有冇本事可以留得住個男人既心~


担白講~ 你想FOC ...

呵呵。。。師兄，你一定好好人，所以d囡囡對你甘好。。。俾甘多行情你知。。

hk1010h

喂, C hing , 唔好 ( humiliate ) 的大陸仔呀..
佢地而家有成2皮野人工好威架 !!!

我想同條大陸柒頭講你柒夠未 ??扮有錢 ....香周街人都過千萬身家 ....有層好的樓都800-900 萬 !!

的大陸仔未人吊夠 !!!

okacheung

Great, seems like we now reach almost the end of the discussion. Let's spend some money on girls, say $5k to $10k a month out of all the fortunes we have and keep up with the "work hard, play hard" attitude. Here are my last consolation lines for you macaubeyond:

1) If you think I am just a HKer supporting HKers, you may be surprised that I was actually born in Guangzhou and were migrated to HK for less than 15 years. It took me a lot of effort to get to what I am now. Yes, an investment banker and on my way up. I am patriotic too but unlike you I don't took what Chinese media's rosy views of China as face value and began showing off China's muscles rather partially without regard to thinking about a broader view of economic reality.
2) All credits to you, rising above many members of your society but please don't question HKers' capacity to consume and spend. Especially the money spent on girls when they 沉船. They spent the money is not because of they are stupid but in fact, it is quite true and likely that they do have the fortune and capacity to spend. Also, I have to remind you that there are also many other HKers that go to Shenzhen or other parts of China that are not all 桑拿和向西村 visitors and truck drivers. There are many powerful businessmen and wealthy individuals that can truly afford the funs (and the fucks too).
3) If I am causing any grievance or outrage to you, my advice for you is to go to Dongguan for a 桑拿, ask for 3 girls and penetrate all their orfices, that way you can restore your peace of mind. I am sure it will be money well spent.

Bunryuu

引用:

原帖由 simonkok 於 2011-2-9 04:18 PM 發表


呵呵。。。師兄，你一定好好人，所以d囡囡對你甘好。。。俾甘多行情你知。。

o岩咀型姐~

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